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After years of investor concerns about advertising market trends, streaming losses, cord-cutting in the streaming age eating away at Hollywood giants’ cable networks units, their former core profit growth engines, and competition from technology giants, a whiff of entertainment optimism is sweeping across Wall Street as the calendar changes from 2024 to 2025. “Dare We Say We’re Optimistic?” Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall wrote in a Dec. 19 preview for the new year, in which he picked his favorite sector stocks. “This is the best we’ve felt about the broader space since ’21.” And Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich shared a similar outlook: “For 2025, we are generally bullish on media.” However, Wall Street analysts differ in their recommendations for where to put money in 2025. Big Hollywood players, small success stories, or stocks powered by growth? Here is The Hollywood Reporter’s look at some stocks that media and entertainment analysts have started naming as their top picks for 2025. Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Bank of America Pick: Netflix, SpotifyWhy: “Supported by its world-class brand, leading global subscriber base and position as a leading innovator we believe Netflix is poised to continue to outperform,” the veteran analyst wrote in a Dec. 19 report that identified key trends and stock picks for 2025. Reif Ehrlich highlighted no fewer than five catalysts: “Continued strong subscriber growth, accelerating ramp of the burgeoning ad business (leveraging new partners such as Trade Desk), which is expected to double in ’25 (albeit off a small base) and become a multi-year growth driver in ’26 and beyond, growth of live programming on Netflix which benefits subscriber acquisition as well as grows the advertising business by providing premium inventory, potential growth in gaming from a very small base (driven by strong Netflix IP integration), and operating leverage.” The expert is also bullish on Spotify, pointing out that it controls “a roughly one-third market share of the premium music streaming market.” The reason? “The company is clearly at an inflection point, which is driving outsized share price performance. We are confident in the sustainability of this momentum.” That confidence is driven by such factors as recent price increases, “room for further prices increases,” continued subscriber growth, “an improvement in advertising, driven in part by podcasting,” a scaling up of new businesses, such as audiobooks, “new pricing tiers including the new ‘music-only’ tier,” the rollout of video podcasting, and a potential launch of capital returns. Doug Creutz, TD Cowen Pick: Take-Two Interactive SoftwareWhy: “Take-Two is a top-tier operator in the global video game market with the best long-term track record in its peer group,” the analyst wrote in his firm’s recent “Best Ideas 2025” report. “Expected catalysts include the release of Grand Theft Auto VI in fall 2025, as well as a strong pipeline of other titles, including Borderlands 4.” Creutz reiterated his “buy” rating and raised his stock price target from $176 to $211 “on a higher target multiple reflective of substantial upside potential from GTA VI‘s online mode.” Calling the game “the most potent catalyst across our coverage space,” he predicts the title to sell 40 million-plus units in its first 12 months, along with a “live service portion” driving “a significant step-up from GTA Online‘s current approximately $500 million annual bookings contribution, potentially multiples higher.”He also explained what is underappreciated or misunderstood about the stock. “We believe the market remains overly bearish on mobile gaming,” Creutz explained. “The mobile market has returned to healthy year-over-year growth in 2023-2024. New title launches, most notably Match Factory, have helped Take-Two’s mobile business hit a new record for quarterly bookings. We expect mobile to continue to be a growth driver for the company going forward.” Robert Routh, FBN Securities Picks: Warner Bros. Discovery, LionsgateWhy: Routh sees a lot of potential for dealmaking, especially including his two favorite stock picks heading into 2025. “Warner Bros. Discovery will split into two separate entities and subsequently look to merge with the NBCUniversal spin company or AMC Networks,” he says in sharing his predictions with THR. Plus, the company will “consider taking DC Comics public as the valuation it would get is likely much higher than what is currently reflected in the public equity.” Meanwhile, Lionsgate and Lionsgate Studios, after their separation, “will likely both become part of larger organizations,” according to Routh. “Here we see the new media entities, possibly Apple or Meta, look to acquire the IP the company owns to leverage across their respective platforms.” Benjamin Swinburne, Morgan Stanley Pick: Walt DisneyWhy: Swinburne’s top media/entertainment stock pick going into 2025 is Disney. In a recent preview of the new year, he highlighted that entertainment giants have started turning their streaming operations profitable, emphasizing: “What streaming profitability does not imply, however, is that these companies can generate overall consolidated earnings and free cash flow growth – with the exception of Disney, which benefits from a large and growing Experiences segment,” which accounts for about 60 percent of operating income of the company’s business segments. The Experiences unit, which includes Disney’s theme parks and cruise ships, will not only deliver on management’s financial guidance but also has “new growth vectors ahead,” the analyst noted. “We believe achieving this guidance is not fully fully priced into current Disney shares, as Disney’s scaled investments at its Experiences segment offer durability in the growth outlook.” These investments “include plans to meaningfully expand cruise capacity and to improve monetization of under-developed theme park land, both typically high-ROIC (return on invested capital) opportunities,” the expert explained. All in all, Disney deserves “a premium to media peers due to its parks business and media monetization growth opportunity,” Swinburne concluded, citing such investment drivers as streaming opportunity, carriage renewals, improving consumer trends, and “film success.” Peter Supino, Wolfe Research Picks: Live Nation Entertainment, Sony, Universal Music GroupWhy: Supino’s “high conviction outperform”-rated stocks have key factors in common. “Across our coverage, digital media separates the elite from the ordinary,” he explained in a December report. “In media and entertainment, our favorite growth formula remains ‘streaming x social = secular growth’.” And “firms with the best ideas and lowest marginal costs displace incumbents and drive equity value.” Supino upgraded Universal Music (UMG) to an “outperform” rating in mid-October, arguing that “music’s leading value/price ratio, UMG’s control of IP and tiering create immense opportunity.” After a November earnings report, he highlighted: “Re-accelerating third-quarter subscription growth defies fears of developed market saturation, while an aggressive focus on innovation regarding pricing/tiering create vast growth opportunities.” On Live Nation, the analyst is similarly bullish. “Mix shift comparison headwinds peaked in the third quarter and are set to become tailwinds in 2025,” he noted after the firm’s latest quarterly earnings report in November. “True to model, profits grew through it. Demand signals are very robust, while supply continues to ride music streaming x social media.” Supino has also been touting Sony shares, seeing the company on track for delivering the promises of a three-year financial plan. “Despite macro and segment risks, Sony’s multi-year thesis is intact,” he wrote in August, emphasizing: “We find the Sony risk-to-reward ratio compelling.” Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Pick: Charter CommunicationsWhy: The pay-TV industry expert is bullish on the cable giant, which used to be a Wall Street darling before facing challenges in recent years. “Most would understandably trace the decline in Chartershares to broadband competition; the market has obsessed over broadband sub trends for years,” he explained. “But it is surely not a coincidence that the decline also coincided with a dramatic change to Charter’s long-successful value creation formula.” Namely, the company raised capital spending to go through a major infrastructure plant upgrade and expand its rural footprint, meaning less capital for stock buybacks. “The formula had changed. And over the next two years, Charter’s share price fell by more than half,” Moffett highlighted. “As we enter 2025, Charter is on the brink of returning to the old formula. Over the next few years, Charter will complete its network upgrades and begin to scale back its rural builds. We project that annual capital spending will fall by $3.7 billion to $7.7 billion by 2028. They will direct that newly available cash to repurchases.” He estimated that over the next four years, Charter will shrink its share count by 48 percent. “That, plus a forecast that brings broadband net adds back to growth starting next year – minimal growth, to be sure, but growth just the same – make Charter our top pick for 2025,” the analyst concluded. “At a time of nosebleed valuations for so many stocks in the S&P 500, Charter is that rare find: a company with comfortably low expectations and (as a result) a remarkably low valuation.” Steven Cahall, Wells Fargo Picks: Spotify, Walt Disney, Fox Corp.Why: “Spotify is our top pick on incremental margins and monetization,” the analyst explained. “Spotify has gone from a price taker of music labels’ royalty terms to a price maker as the largest digital service provider, biggest label partner and critical platform for the labels to accelerate revenue growth.” Plus he predicts key stock catalysts: “We see a super fan tier announcement as the biggest first-half 2025 catalyst. We also think Spotify will soon announce a capital return program as we estimate more than €5.5 billion ($5.72 billion) in cash on the balance sheet by year-end.” Cahall also likes Disney, which he sees as growth stock, and Fox, which he described as a value stock. Disney has “the most ways to win,” Cahall highlighted, calling its most recent quarterly results “a game-changer.” Plus, fiscal year 2025 and longer-term guidance “provide much-needed visibility to media’s most complicated stock,” he explained. “We think upside to estimates is the key Disney catalyst. We see Content sales/Licensing and Other (CSLO) and direct-to-consumer (DTC) as the biggest potential sources.” Meanwhile, the top catalyst for Fox shares is “an announcement as to how Fox will move its sportsnets into streaming,” the expert said, also sharing: “we think incremental sports streaming subs will surprise to the upside.” Cahall’s conclusion: “Fox is the biggest beneficiary of sports moving into streaming.” Eric Handler, Roth MKM Pick: Take-Two Interactive SoftwareWhy: “We believe Take-Two has reached an inflection point with its development pipeline,” the analyst wrote in a Dec. 17 report touting the stock as his top pick for 2025. “The momentum gains from a strong wave of upcoming releases are expected to fuel a significant step-up in bookings and earnings per share with record results anticipated in each of the next two years. Calendar year 2025 should be highlighted by the long-awaited release of Grand Theft Auto VI along with notable franchise titles, Civilization VII, Mafia: The Old Country, and Borderlands 4. Remaining in the long-term development pipeline are a new Bioshock game and new IP titles Judas and Project Ethos.” Additionally, “mobile has regained momentum with a reacceleration of growth for Toon Blast and new IPMatch Factory,” Handler highlighted. “The scale provided by the increased pace of game releases should create a meaningful scale for the business and propel operating margin.” Plus, “significant free cash flow generation should allow Take-Two to delever,” he added.The expert also listed such possible catalysts for the company’s shares as “trailer reveals for keygames, release date announcements, and eventual game releases.” Ralph Schackart, William Blair Pick: RokuWhy: “The connected TV (CTV) market should post strong growth in 2025 as new ad tiers from Amazon, Disney, and Netflix scale,” the expert wrote in a note explaining why the media tech firm is his top pick going into the new year. “Moreover, more companies are embracing CTV as a growing advertising channel. Roku’s scale with about 85 million active accounts positions it favorably to run large-scale campaigns for advertisers.” Schackart is also bullish on trends in Roku’s free cash flow, or the money that remains after the company pays for operating expenses and capital expenditures. “Roku should grow free cash flow (FCF) from about $200 million in 2024 to about $325 million in 2025 while scaling margins,” he forecast. “We believe the improving and sustained FCF growth should attract a broader shareholder base.” That said, advertising market momentum has been an investor concern. “Following a trough of ad buyer sentiment in July, our recent conversation with an industry participant suggests the advertising macro environment remains strong,” Schackart shared though. “Although Roku’s media and entertainment is facing specific challenges, broader advertising activities across Roku’s platform are outperforming both the overall and OTT (over-the-top) ad markets in the U.S.” Overall, he estimated that “there is about 30 percent upside in the shares.” Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities Picks: Imax, Take-Two Interactive SoftwareWhy: “It’s a good year for movies and a really good year for video games/Take-Two,” the expert tells THR. “Grand Theft Auto is coming, so Take-Two is highly likely to see a huge year. The stock is expensive, so that is largely priced in, but I think it continues to appreciate.”  His top pick for 2025 and his entry on Wedbush’s Best Ideas List is Imax though. “I think Imax stands out among the beneficiaries of a huge film slate,” Pachter explains to THR. “They have cracked the formula for bringing back ‘old’ interesting films like Interstellar to fill up screens in between big releases, and it seems to be working.” In a recent report, he also cited several other factors. Pachter sees Imax continuing to “gain market share as moviegoers increasingly prefer Imax screens” and lauded it for having “significantly expanded its filmed-for-Imax partnerships, which should drive incremental market share gains in 2025,” while “diversifying with more alternative content to boost revenue further” and expanding its footprint globally and leaning into local-language content.” Plus, the company “is poised to top peak earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margins in the next three years,” he highlighted. Matthew Harrigan, Benchmark Pick: Live Nation EntertainmentWhy: “Radical Optimism” – Harrigan chose a Dua Lipa album title to summarize why Live Nation is his top pick for 2025. “We remain confident that interest in live events, especially concerts, can persist through any economic slowdown.” He made “another upward revision in our 2025 Live Nation price target to $160 from $144 off continuing confidence in the 2025 concert calendar and somewhat of a further positive rethink on Ticketmaster,” the analyst highlighted in a Dec. 19 report. “The only dampener is significant weakness in the Mexican peso.”   Political changes are also making Harrigan optimistic given the antitrust lawsuit filed against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for “monopolizing markets across the live concert industry” that is seeking a break-up. Explained the expert: “Heightened confidence in a more traditional FTC antitrust posture with the departure of the FTC’s Lina Khan and Live Nation nemesis Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter lessens the overall regulatory cloud even with high confidence in an eventual favorable resolution even were the Department of Justice lawsuit to continue.” Jeff Wlodarczak, Pivotal Research Group Picks: Netflix, Spotify, TKO Group, Liberty Media’s Formula One GroupWhy: “I am not a big fan of the traditional media names,” the expert tells THR. Instead, he prefers streaming players with momentum and sports and sports-related names. Wlodarczak is touting “Netflix and Spotify on higher subscribers and higher average revenue per user,” driven by higher subscription prices and advertising,” he explains. In November, he boosted his stock price targets on both to street highs, in the case of Spotify by $50 to $615, and in the case of Netflix by $175 to $1,100. Meanwhile, TKO and Formula One “are very rare assets that are benefiting from massive increases in media rights fees and competition in traditional media/Internet,” the analyst explains. He recently raised his stock price target on TKO by $20 to a Street high of $165, and Formula One by $29 to a Street high of $125.

Ну-ну-ну, посмотрите, кто наконец присоединился к вечеринке! South by Southwest (SXSW), любимый фестиваль, где крутость является основой, решил посыпать своих артистов еще немного волшебной пылью. И самое время! После десятилетнего замораживания SXSW размораживает свой кошелек, поскольку они решили увеличить выплаты артистам. Раньше группы, выставляющие напоказ свои выступления на SXSW, могли рассчитывать на скромные 250 долларов, которых хватило бы на несколько обедов и, возможно, на необычный сувенир. Но теперь группы могут выступать с 350 долларами в кармане, в то время как сольные артисты видят, что их доходы вырастают со 100 до не таких уж и скромных 150 долларов. Конечно, на новую гитару можно не купить, но на праздничный тако этого точно хватит! Но подождите, это еще не все! Браслет артиста теперь можно обменять на музыкальный значок, предоставляющий ему полный доступ к сокровищнице событий фестиваля. Это как получить ключи от королевства, только это королевство находится в Остине и слегка пахнет барбекю. Спасибо SXSW за то, что он наконец признал, что артистам нужно нечто большее, чем просто известность, чтобы оплачивать счета. Это шаг в правильном направлении, даже если это всего лишь небольшой шаг, а не гигантский скачок. Хотя это повышение зарплаты не приведет к тому, что артисты уйдут с основной работы, это признак того, что SXSW достаточно ценит свой вклад, чтобы открыть свои копилки. В заключение отметим, что недавние действия SXSW подобны прохладному ветерку в техасскую жару – освежающему, но не совсем холодному фронту. Без сомнения, это позитивное изменение и знак того, что фестиваль прислушивается к своим артистам. Хотя в плане оплаты еще есть куда двигаться, давайте поаплодируем SXSW – они настраиваются на правильную частоту, даже если еще не доводят ее до одиннадцати.